Well-known Ukrainian coach and football expert Vyacheslav Grozny made an analysis of the Euro 2024 qualifying draw, according to the results of which the Ukrainian team will play with England, Italy, North Macedonia and Malta.
V'yacheslav Grozny— Vyacheslav Viktorovich, what are your first emotions in general from the draw?
- To have an acceptable lot, you need an appropriate rating and results. Winning your group in Division B of the League of Nations and moving to the top division would automatically guarantee this for us. Ukraine would then be in the second, not in the third basket. But this is already history. I look at ten groups and by and large, without offending any team, I see only two top pairs - these are the Netherlands-France (quartet B) and Italy-England (quartet C). In all others, if you call a spade a spade, the situation is different. Here in group A, Spain and Scotland, in group D, Croatia and Wales, and then there are Poland-Czech Republic, Belgium-Austria, Hungary-Serbia, Denmark-Finland, Sweden-Israel and Portugal-Bosnia.
- Are you optimistic about the chances of the Ukrainian national team here too?
- Naturally, we can say that in groups B and C, the tandems of the first two teams are the strongest. Ukraine, unfortunately, fell into one of these. Nobody wanted to be in these groups. But we hope that we will still play at the European Championship. By the way, we are “lucky” in terms of being in groups with giants. And we should get used to it by now. Or, due to the result, you need to increase your rating and get into the first basket.
- In your opinion, Ukraine often comes across strong opponents as a result of the draw?
- Let's remember. Judge for yourself! In the Euro 2016 qualification, we were in the same group with the European 2012 champion Spain, in the Euro 2020 qualification we were in the same quartet with the Euro 2016 champion Portugal. By the way, we played successfully with the Portuguese, playing 0:0 away and winning 2:1 at home. And in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, we played in the same group with the winner of the 2018 World Cup, France, and drew 1:1 with them twice. We got into the Euro 2024 qualification group together with the champion and finalist of Euro 2020 Italy and England. In my opinion, games with the strongest European teams give an incentive to both football players and coaches. Fans are interested in such fights. Footballers strive to play in top championships, so successful games for the national team are the main catalyst for their skill and invitation to serious clubs.
- Do you think Ukraine has something to hope for in a group with England and Italy?
- The Italian and English teams, along with the positive, currently have too many negatives and a number of significant problems. What? Ask yourself a question. And you will be quite surprised! The European champions, the Italians, did not qualify for the World Cup in Qatar, having lost 0:1 to North Macedonia at home. And the British were relegated from the top division of the League of Nations to Group B, finishing last in their quartet. Do you think this is a coincidence? I will try to prove to you that this is not so. For example, Portugal, after winning Euro 2016, lost to Uruguay (1:2) at the 2018 World Cup in the 1/8 finals. And at Euro 2020, the Portuguese lost to Belgium in the 1/8 finals (0:1). France, after winning the 2018 World Cup, lost in the 1/8 finals of Euro 2020 in a penalty shootout to the Swiss. As for the Portuguese, I can say that they had big problems getting into the World Cup in Qatar, as they finished second in the qualifying group, letting Serbia go ahead. In the playoff final of the 2022 World Cup qualification, everyone saw a pair of Italy - Portugal. No one could predict the outcome of this confrontation, except for North Macedonia, which unexpectedly beat Italy, and thus opened the way for the Portuguese to the World Cup. The Portuguese, after defeating the Turks (3:1), beat North Macedonia (2:0) and reached the World Cup.
- Due to what can Ukraine compete with the British and Italians?
- For example, France took the silver of Euro 2016, the gold of the World Cup 2018 and the Cup of the League of Nations 2020. But then at Euro 2020, as I said, after a 3-3 draw, they lost in a penalty shootout to Switzerland. This year, in their group of the League of Nations, the French took the penultimate place, ahead of Austria by one point only in the final round. They won only one victory over the Austrians. France miraculously did not leave the top division of the League of Nations. So what do you think? In my opinion, this is natural. Why? Because after the most serious successes and winning cups, a natural decline follows, most likely associated with an emotional and psychological component (“batteries are low”). People are not robots, they are emotionally emasculated. It is impossible to recharge them immediately. It takes time, patience, joining the national team hungry for victories and young talents. And it is very difficult for coaches to make adjustments, because the previous work brought the maximum result. Therefore, our rivals in the group, Italy and England, have approximately the same condition today.
- Do you think it's normal that the finalists of the last Euro fell into the same group in the qualification?
- The winners of the last Euro, the Italian team, in the euphoria of success, managed to lose at home in the qualification of the World Cup to North Macedonia. But I want to repeat my theses that the winners of any tournament should automatically receive a ticket to the final part of any competition. The European champion and the world champion must play in the final part of the Euro and World Cup. They do not need to prove anything in the selection, as they have already won the championship. I think that this aspect should be corrected in the near future. But Italy has been entered into the draw and must compete in qualifying to qualify for the Euros and defend their title. All this is wrong. And not only because in one group there were two finalists of the Euro, the British and the Italians, in the fight against which our team will have to get the coveted ticket. For example, in our place in the event of our victory over Scotland, and, consequently, winning the League of Nations group, it would be the Scots. They would play with the Italians and the English. And we would be in group A, following the Spaniards.
- What do you think, what are the problems of the England team? What should the coaching staff of the Ukrainian team pay attention to?
- We already know that on March 26 we will start the match away with England, which also has a rather difficult period after the Euro. They were relegated to Division B of the League of Nations. There is also the most severe criticism of the team, the coaching staff and calls to change Southgate for another coach, which cannot go unnoticed. We must not forget about attracting a very large group of young football players, which takes time and patience. The British have a large group of talents in the creative aspect. They have game practice in their clubs and it is desirable for the national team coaches to try to play them in the team. Who is it? First up, Man City's 23-year-old Phil Foden! And also this is a jet guy from London Arsenal Bukayo Saka and Mason Mount from Chelsea. Also Declan Rice from West Ham, Jude Bellingham from Borussia Dortmund! A group of young talents has grown, but there are also many experienced players in England. Both of them are very strong players. And it's not easy to combine them.
— And what do you think about Italy?
- Italians are also undergoing serious personnel changes. This is due to the departure of a number of long-term leaders and the very frequent rotation of the national team based on Serie A games. The Chiellini-Bonucci defender pair has been indispensable for many years. But Italy will have to create a new pair of centre-backs. For Italy, God forbid, it is important that they persuade them to stay in the Bonucci team. But these are their questions, because Leonardo means too much to them. It means a lot to Ukraine, for example, Stepanenko, Yarmolenko and other experienced guys. Everyone wants leaders to play. The Italian team flew past the World Cup, and therefore the slightest mistake in the selection of the Euro can cost the chair of Roberto Mancini. And the Italians, by the way, will again play with the Macedonians. This is so just in case! And I don't exclude anything. It will no longer be possible to ride on the old gaming luggage, as new performers are added and new ideas are needed. And they cannot appear by magic. Yes, there are backbone players - this is the goalkeeper Donnarumma, the central defender Bonucci, if he is persuaded to play, the manager Jorginho, Verratti, Barella, Immobile. Mancini, seeing that after the Euro for a year and a half there are problems in attack, gives a chance to a large group of forwards. A chance is given to Napoli representatives Raspadori and Politano, Skamacca from West Ham, as well as other guys. But the Italian national team still scores very little and the attackers do not always do it. Personally, I am most impressed by the progress of the 23-year-old Nicola Zaniolo from Roma under the leadership of José Mourinho. In any case, the Italians are great professionals, well trained tactically. And now, after all the vicissitudes, they are hungry for victories.
— And yet, what is your prediction for Euro 2024 qualification?
- Very interesting matches are waiting for us. And our team is competitive. Young people are adding and progressing very quickly. We see this in UPL and European Cup matches. They constantly get huge, serious practice and look decent. I personally look with optimism, as always, at the upcoming Euro qualification and believe in success!
Dmitry KOTKOV
