Already during the October FIFA window, the Ukraine national team can get a guaranteed place in the play-offs for Euro 2024. Getting in/not getting there depends on the results of matches in other groups.
In particular, Ukraine needs two of the five national teams, which are Scotland, Serbia, Finland, Israel, Bosnia and Herzegovina, to qualify directly for the European Championship. That is, to take first or second place in their qualification groups.
In October, Scotland and Serbia can fulfil this condition.
- Scotland need to beat Spain in Group A (12.10), or wait for Norway to lose points against Cyprus (12.10).
- Serbia need to beat Hungary (14.10) and Montenegro (17.10) in their group.
If these conditions are fulfilled, Ukraine is guaranteed a place in the Division B play-offs, if it does not qualify for the European Championship directly (from the first or second place of its qualification group). It is important to note that getting into the playoffs does not depend on the final unbeaten place in the group: you can get into the playoffs with the same probability from the third place of the group, as well as from the fifth place. It is tied to the results of the Nations League, which cannot change.
Ukraine also has a chance to be in the playoffs in Division A. These chances depend on how many Division A representatives from the last Nations League qualify for the European Championship from their qualification groups.
