The Ukrainian national team misses out on a backup chance to qualify for the 2026 World Cup due to failure in the Nations League. However, the probability of successful qualification remains significant.
Photo: UAFThe Ukrainian national team continues its journey to the 2026 World Cup. Serhiy Rebrov’s team has played four matches in the group and has good chances of at least making it to the playoff matches.
What is the format of the qualification?
Rebrov’s team is in Group D with France, Iceland, and Azerbaijan. After four games, the «blue and yellows» have 7 points and occupy second place in the group.
According to the regulations, only the group winners will qualify directly for the World Cup. In turn, the second places will advance to a playoff round, where four more tickets to the World Cup will be determined.
The Ukrainian team has only two matches left in the group to keep their chances of successful qualification. On November 13, Serhiy Rebrov’s team will play France in Paris, and on the 16th — «at home» in Warsaw against Iceland. So what does Ukraine need in these matches?
What is needed to win the group?
The «blue and yellows» still have a chance for first place in the group and direct qualification to the World Cup. However, for this, our team needs to beat France away, and with as big a score as possible.
The thing is, if points are equal, the goal difference will determine the higher-ranked team. Currently, the French have a +6, while Ukraine has a +1. Moreover, even a victory over France does not guarantee our team first place. In the last round, «Les Bleus» can significantly improve their goal difference in the match with the Azeris.
Meanwhile, Ukraine will face a much more stubborn Iceland. Therefore, for first place, our team needs to win both matches and hope that the Caucasians do not lose at home to France.
What is needed to reach the playoffs?
Our team’s chances of reaching the playoffs are much better. For this, it’s necessary to stay in second place in the group, although that will not be easy.
If Ukraine loses to the French in the next round and Iceland beats Azerbaijan, the islanders will take second place. The Scandinavians have a better goal difference (+2 against our +1) and will only improve it in the battle with the underdog.
In such a case, only a victory in the head-to-head clash with Iceland will suit Serhiy Rebrov’s team in the last round. However, there are two more options where Ukraine can play for a draw in the last round:
- The «blue and yellows» do not lose to France beforehand
- Iceland drops points in the game against Azerbaijan
If any of these scenarios occur, a draw will suit the «blue and yellows» in the last round. There is also a dream scenario where the match in Warsaw against Iceland becomes a formality.
To secure second place in advance, Ukraine needs to earn more points against France than Iceland against Azerbaijan. Then the gap against the islanders will increase to an unattainable 4−6 points.
Is there a chance to qualify for the 2026 World Cup from third place?
Unfortunately, if Ukraine finishes in 3rd or 4th place in the group, Rebrov’s team’s campaign will end negatively. Theoretically, there was a chance to make the playoffs in case of a disastrous qualification.
In this stage, not only the 12 second places in the groups would pass, but also the four best teams from the Nations League. These are teams that won their groups in this tournament but finished below second place in the qualification.
However, Rebrov’s team did not perform well in the Nations League. Ukraine finished second in their League B group behind Czechia, so it is the Czechs who have the right to this additional playoff option.
When are the playoffs and World Cup?
The playoffs will take place at the end of March 2026. 16 teams will be divided into four quartets, within which they will play semifinals and a final. The winners of these four finals will receive tickets to the World Cup.
The final part of the World Cup will be held from June 11 to July 19, 2026, in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. This will be the first World Cup with 48 teams participating.
Anatoliy Dereka
