Today in Krakow Dynamo Kyiv will play against Rennes in the match from the fourth round of the Europa League group stage. After three matches played, the White-Blues did not score a single point, casting doubt not only on reaching the playoffs of the tournament, but also on getting into the Conference League play-offs, for which, we recall, you need to take third place in the group.
Yes, from this point of view, the match with AEK may become key, however, losing Dynamo points today is highly undesirable. We explain why, having analyzed the options.
SITUATION IN THE GROUP AFTER THREE ROUNDS
| Team | And | P | H | P | M | O |
| Fenerbahce | 3 | 2 | one | 0 | 6:3 | 7 |
| "Rennes" | 3 | 2 | one | 0 | 6:4 | 7 |
| AEK | 3 | one | 0 | 2 | 2:4 | 3 |
| "Dynamo" | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:5 | 0 |
The probability of the Kiev team entering the playoffs of the tournament is extremely low. To count on the continuation of the struggle in the Europa League, Dynamo not only needs to defeat Rennes, but also count on the good fortune of fate in the remaining matches of the group. Moreover, not only with their participation.
If Dynamo beat Rennes and Fenerbahce beat AEK, then in the two remaining matches, the white-blues need not only to defeat the Cypriot and already Turkish teams, but also hope that Rennes will lose to AEK and Fener.
If Dynamo beats Rennes and Fenerbahce draws against AEK, then Dynamo will need to win the remaining two matches in the group, hoping that either Fenerbahce will also lose to Rennes. In this case, Rennes and Dynamo will enter the Europa League. Or Rennes will not score two points or more in matches with Fenerbahce and AEK. But the key condition in each of the cases is the victory of Dynamo in the three remaining matches.
If Dynamo beat Rennes and Fenerbahce lose to AEK, then the situation in the group will be even more confusing. Rennes and Fenerbahce will each have seven points left, AEK will have six, and Dynamo will have three.
Theoretically, a draw with Rennes and the defeat of Fenerbahce in a parallel match with AEK will allow Lucescu's team to count on reaching the playoffs of the Europa League. In this case, Dynamo will have one point, Rennes - eight, Fenerbahce - seven, AEK - six. Further, the white-blues must not only defeat AEK and beat Fenerbahce with a difference of two goals, but also hope that the Turkish and Cypriot clubs will also lose to Rennes.
If Dinamo loses to Rennes and AEK beats Fenerbahce, then the white-blues will not only have to beat the Cypriot club by two goals, but also count on its defeat in the match with Rennes.
If Dynamo loses to Rennes and AEK draws with Fenerbahce, then Dynamo will not only need to beat the Cypriot club in a full-time match, but also score points, and it is desirable to defeat the Canaries in the final group match, hoping that AEK will not win against Rennes.
If Dynamo loses to Rennes, and AEK loses to Fenerbahce, in many respects the ticket to the Conference League will be decided by the outcome of the head-to-head matches of the two clubs. Dynamo need to beat the Cypriots with a two-goal difference and play no worse than AEK in the last round.
In any of the scenarios, the key for Dynamo is the duel with AEK. On one important condition: if the white-blues lose to Rennes, and AEK does not lose to Fenerbahce, even a victory over the Cypriots in a head-to-head match, which will take place within the framework of the fifth round, Lucescu's team may not be enough to enter the European Cup spring. And in this case, not everything will depend on the people of Kiev.