After all the qualification groups for the 2026 World Cup became known, analysts from FootballMeetsData calculated the chances of all teams in this qualifier. This is reported by the Telegram channel "Bombardir".
It is reported that Ukraine's chances of qualifying directly (from 1st place), surpassing France, Iceland, and Azerbaijan, stand at 17%.
It is much more realistic to qualify for the tournament from 2nd place (67%) through the playoff, which consists of 2 stages, where it is even possible to meet teams like San Marino or Moldova. In this case, Ukraine will be seeded in the semifinals from the 1st pot and will most likely face one of the winners from the Nations League groups who cannot qualify in the top 2 in the qualifier:
Moldova (68%)
North Macedonia (64%)
Northern Ireland (62%)
Romania (50%)
Sweden (44%)
San Marino (33%)
Wales (25%)
% — probability of these teams making it to the playoffs through the Nations League.
After that, in the qualification final, Ukraine can play against both teams from the Nations League and other national teams that finished in 2nd place in the qualification groups, preliminarily these are:
Turkey
Serbia
Norway
Hungary
Poland
Greece
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Sweden
Slovenia
Wales
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Conditional playoff model from Football Meets Data:
Pot 1: Ukraine, Turkey, Serbia, Wales
Pot 2: Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Greece
Pot 3: Norway, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Pot 4: Romania, Sweden, North Macedonia, Gibraltar
Semifinals:
Pot 1 vs Pot 4
Pot 2 vs Pot 3
Finals by draw.
In each stage, one match, as it was in the qualifiers for the 2022 World Cup and Euro 2024.
